Don't expect Facebook's $19 billion WhatsApp purchase to set off a messaging app shopping
spree.
Although mobile messaging is
hugely important to the future of communication and gaining momentum by the
day, every potential messaging player seems to have its cards in place.
Google's Hangouts is available on the
Web, Apple's iOS and as the chat service for Gmail, and it recently became the
default text messaging app for Android.
Apple has its iMessage
service, with well over 100 million active users. It works on iPhones, iPads,
and Macs. IMessage has potential for growth, but Apple generally avoids big
acquisitions, and it doesn't concern itself much with offering its services on
rival platforms (Safari and iTunes are the exceptions).
Microsoft owns Skype, which is widely
used for video chats and cheap international telephone calls -- but not as much
for messaging. Skype is already the biggest multi-platform messaging service.
Trying to fold another company into Microsoft's social networking universe
seems like more trouble than it's worth -- Microsoft should just push Skype in
new directions.
BlackBerry's BBM service is one of the last
remaining assets of any value for the struggling Canadian smartphone maker.
Shares of BlackBerry soared Thursday on the WhatsApp news, as investors
realized they had undervalued BBM. But don't expect BlackBerry to give up on its
popular messaging app anytime soon.
WeChat and Line are two of the biggest
messaging services, with enormous followings in the lucrative Chinese and
Japanese markets, respectively. But both are already owned by large
corporations that aren't about to give up on their prized possessions.
Smaller services such as the Kik and Kakao
Talk are very acquirable, but are neither is established enough internationally
to make much of a mark for any potential buyer. Viber has gained a lot of
traction, but it was acquired last week by the Japan's Ratuken for $900
million.
Twitter and Samsung could be potential
acquirers. Samsung's ChatOn service reportedly has 100 million users, but
little influence. Twitter has tried to establish itself as a direct messaging
platform with mixed success. But no messaging service seems to quite fit for
either company.
And then there's Snapchat, the popular
messaging service that deletes photos and videos after a few seconds. Snapchat
reportedly turned down a $3 billion offer from Facebook. After WhatsApp's lofty
price tag, Snapchat could fetch a big payday. But Snapchat still feels
separate, or at least complimentary, to the major messaging services.
The mobile messaging market is extremely
fragmented. But now that WhatsApp is off the market, there doesn't seem to be a
lot more room for consolidation. That means some services will likely grow
while others simply die off.
That also leaves Facebook in a very
favorable position to start to take control of the mobile messaging market,
particularly Europe and the Americas. Facebook is the only messaging competitor
that isn't producing hardware or a mobile operating system, so it has a true
incentive to make its product as accessible and universal as possible.
But with more than a billion users,
Facebook and WhatsApp could help make sense of what is right now a chaotic
messaging landscape.
No comments:
Post a Comment